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Annual Production will decline into mid-2021, falling to levels last seen in late 2010. Annual production will subsequently rise through at least yearend 2021; activity will not reach pre-pandemic levels during that time.
Annual Production was 0.6% below the forecast range in 2019. Our analysis suggests Production may trend slightly below the forecast range in the near term. However, deviation is not expected to increase, and leading indicator evidence suggests the forecast represents the most likely outcome in the long run. Sustained rise in annual Production is not expected until late this year. The rising trend is expected to last from the second half of this year into late 2021.
Annual average Europe Industrial Production in August was down 0.6% compared to the prior year. Ongoing uncertainty regarding Brexit, as well as the trade war between the US and China, is negatively impacting the European industrial sector. Business cycle rise in the Europe Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index and the Europe Leading Indicator suggests that Europe Industrial Production will transition to a business cycle rising trend during the first half of 2020.
Annual average Europe Industrial Production in June was 0.1% below the year-ago level, marking a transition to Phase D, Recession. Annual average Production has risen at an annual rate of around 3.5% since mid-2017. The European auto sector is in the deepest recession since 2008-09. This industry is facing stressors from the upcoming Brexit deadline, weakness in international trade, and looming CO2 emissions requirements.
Annual average Industrial Production in February was up 0.8% from the prior year. Plan for Production to generally decline into early 2020 before subsequently rising through at least the end of 2020. Expect average activity during 2020 to be 0.8% above the 2019 level. Europe automotive leading indicators have trended significantly lower in recent months. The most recent three months of Europe Light Vehicle Sales are down 3.5% from the same three months one year earlier. Taken in aggregate, the leading indicator evidence suggests Production is due for the most severe recession since the Great Recession.
Europe Industrial Production during the 12 months through November was up 2.0% compared to one year ago. Average annual Production is expected to decline into early 2020 before subsequently rising through at least the end of that year. Our long-term forecast for Production is in line with our outlooks for US Industrial Production and World Industrial Production, which suggest the rate-of-change descent in Europe Industrial Production will persist into the first half of 2020.
Europe Industrial Production during the 12 months through August was up 2.9% compared to one year ago. Production was at the highest level in almost 10 years. However, the ITR Checking Points™ system suggests the slowing growth trend will persist. General downward movement in the Europe Food and Beverage Production quarterly growth rate suggests the Phase C trend in Machinery Production will persist in at least the near term.
Europe Industrial Production tentatively transitioned to Phase C, Slowing Growth since the last report while the Europe Food & Beverage Machinery Production was up 3.5% during the 12 months through May from the previous year. Production rise will persist through the third quarter of 2018 before subsequently declining into the second half of 2019 and will resume rising late in 2019.
Europe Industrial Production during the 12 months through February was up 3.5% from one year ago. Production will rise through 2018, albeit at a slowing pace and will then decline during the majority of 2019.A similar scenario can be seen for the Europe Food & Beverage Machinery Production being 3.7% compared to one year ago.
Europe Industrial Production during the 12 months through November was up 3.0% compared to year-ago level, and will rise into late 2018 before declining through year-end 2019 whereas predictions are that the Eastern Europe Industrial Production is maintaining a more robust pace of growth than Western Europe Industrial Production, up 5.7% and 2.4%, respectively.
Europe Industrial Production during the 12 months through August was up 2.5% compared to the year-ago level, and the pace of rise is accelerating further. Looking into more details, Eastern Europe Industrial Production is up 4.5% year over year, while Western Europe Industrial Production is up 1.6%.
The ITR Checking Points™ system suggests that further rise is likely in the near term indication that the strength of the consumer will be a growth driver for the global economy into 2018.
Europe Industrial Production during the 12 months through February was up 1.4% compared to the year‐ago level. Eastern Europe Industrial Production is expanding at a greater pace than Western Europe Industrial Production, up 3.1% and 1.2% year over year, respectively.
Average Eastern Europe Industrial Production during the most recent 12 months is up 2.7% from the year-ago level. However, the pace of growth in total Europe Industrial Production is generally slowing.