PLANNING, MONITORING, ADJUSTING, AND EXECUTING TACTICS TO ENDURE THIS CYCLICAL DOWNTURN IS CRUCIAL TO YOUR BUSINESS’ SUCCESS
Business cycle decline is evident in Europe Industrial Production; the February Europe Industrial Production annual average (latest data available) is down 0.4% from a tentative October 2018 peak. The most recent three months of Production were 0.8% below the same three months one year ago. This is an ITR Checking Point™ which indicates that descent in the annual growth rate will persist during at least the coming quarters. Additionally, leading indicators, such as the G7 Leading Indicator, the Europe Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, and the Europe Business Confidence Index, suggest the Production slide down the back side of the business cycle (slowing growth or recession) is likely to persist through at least the end of this year. This is in line with our outlook for Production rate-of-change descent into early 2020. We recommend keeping a close eye on your cash position and access to credit, so you can endure the mild recession comfortably.